Welcome back! If you have been following my blog post you know that I have been evaluating all the divisions in football. I have been predicting the win loss records for the teams within the division and the winner of the division. We are now down to the final two divisions and I think these two divisions could probably be 1 and 1A.
The AFC north is a hard noise tough division; all the teams in this division resemble the other teams. All the teams in the division want to beat you by running the ball and playing tough defense. This was a division once dominated by the Steelers and Ravens but now the Bengals have a nice young roster and could be creating some waves in this division. Let’s get to it, my evaluation of the four teams in the AFC North!
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
There should be no surprise that I picked the Ravens to win this division again. The Ravens are the returning super bowl champs and you have to take the championship it isn’t given to you. My reason for picking the Ravens isn’t because they won the super bowl last season it’s about the team this season.
Last year the Ravens had a rocky year. Sometimes they looked like a team that would contend for a super bowl and other times they looked like a team that couldn’t get out of its own way. I think that will change this season. The Ravens have been one of the most consistent franchises in the NFL since they joined the league. It helps that you have the model for consistency in Ray Lewis but without Ray they still have some very talented young pieces on this team.
On offense the leader is quarterback Joe Flacco. Say what you want about Flacco, he’s a winner and he fits perfectly with what this team wants to do on offense. Flacco makes good decision and has amazing arm strength. He struggles at times with his accuracy but it doesn’t hurt him to much because he isn’t making bad reads too often. I really like Flacco and expect him to have a very good year.
Behind Flacco is running back ray rice. You can make an argument that he is the second best running back in the league behind Adrian Peterson. Rice does more for the Ravens than any running back does for their team, and that includes Adrian Peterson. Ray Rice is the focal point for the Ravens; he gives Flacco a check down option in the passing game. He is amazing when running the ball and has the ability to protect the quarterback on passing situations. What people don’t know is that they Ravens have a really good back up running back in Bernard Pierce. Pierce gives you all the same things that Rice does except he isn’t as explosive as Rice. Together these two combine for a very dangerous backfield and will be the reason the Ravens produce points in games.
The Ravens have never really had an elite wide receiver, the closest to it was Anquan Boldin and he plays for the 49ers now. It doesn’t surprise me that the Ravens best wide out is Torrey Smith. I like Smith as a deep treat and as a play maker. I don’t like Smith as a number one option in any passing game. He doesn’t run all the routes and his route running isn’t that good to begin with. He will create space because of his speed and quickness but I don’t see him with 9-10 reception game for 120yds. The Ravens other wide out is Jacoby Jones. Jones is much like Smith in which he isn’t a great route runner but has the speed to create separation and get open. This will be the second attempt for Jones to prove he can be a number two receiver. When he was with the Texans and they tried him at that number two spot and it didn’t work out, hence the reason he is with the Ravens. The best receiving threat for the Ravens was tight end Dennis Pitta and he got hurt in training camp. He isn’t gone for the year but we don’t know when he is scheduled to return. The raven still have some quality depth at tight end but none of them are of the caliber of Pitta. I look to see the Ravens do a lot of what they did last season, and that’s work the short passes and the run game and hit either Jones or Smith deep on big plays. That worked for them last season and will work again for them.
Defensively this team took a hit. You don’t lose Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and not take a slight step backwards. With that said this defense can be better this year than they were last season. While Ray and Ed are future Hall Of Famers, they were both getting old and the Ravens got younger at both the inside linebacker and safety positions.
The Ravens signed Safety Michel Huff in the offseason. Huff, at 30 is younger than Ed Reed and scheme wise can give you the same output. Huff doesn’t have the ball instincts that have made Reed a Hall of Famer, but he gives the Ravens the same center field playmaking abilities. Huff is also smart and tough so he can help in run support. The Ravens also replaced Bernard Pollard with rookie safety Matt Elam. Elam started two years for the Florida Gators, and we all know how good SEC defenses are. The gators always have a fast athletic defense. I don’t doubt that Elam will be a good player he’s just a rookie. Rookies will have their ups and downs during the year. In the secondary the Ravens also get back their best corner Lardarius Webb. Webb is very smart and instinctive corner so his return will really help this secondary.
The Ravens also add Elvis Dumervil to go along with Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. Those three players add 3 pro bowl caliber players to the front 7. This defense in my opinion can be better than last years they just need some unproven players and some young players to step up. I can see the Ravens contending for another trophy this year.
Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
I really think this is the year for the Bengals. This team has been to the playoff back to back season, both times losing in the first round. When you look at the Bengals roster you think to yourself “What can they do to get better”? They already have a very solid quarterback in Andy Dalton. AJ Green is a top 5 wide receiver. They have a really good defense. The only answer to the question is experience on the field and adding some more talented players.
The Bengals are a really good team. They’re lead by quarterback Andy Dalton. I don’t see Dalton as elite quarterback but he is very good. He has the ability to buy time in the pocket and extend plays. Dalton is accurate and can make all the throws. He makes good decisions and protects the football. Dalton has an excellent connection with AJ Green and together they make things happen.
The Bengals offense received some much needed help this offseason. Last year the Bengals were able to move the ball on most teams, but they lacked a lot of big play. That is because they lack playmakers, outside of AJ Green nobody else is considered a playmaker on this offense. That may change with the addition of running back Giovani Bernard. Bernard is a home run threat. He has the quickness and explosion to make the plays inside and outside the tackles. Benjarvis-Green Ellis is a good running back but he isn’t really explosive, Bernard is and will also help the Bengals in the passing game.
The Bengals also added tight end Tyler Eifert. Eifert is a long lean athletic tight end. He has the speed to stretch a defense and the strength to be effective in the run game. I think the Bengals struck gold drafted Eifert because paired with Gresham they have a really nice tight end duo. I look to see a lot of two tight end sets with the Bengals this year. By using the two tight end set you give Dalton another weapon in the receiving game and more blockers in the running game.
The Bengals added two explosive rookies to go along with pro bowlers Gresham and Green this can be a really nice offense. I would really like to see another wide receiver emerge to help take some of pressure off AJ Green but I think that they have enough weapons to compensate if that other wide out doesn’t emerge.
I think we have talked enough about what the Bengals offense can be. Let’s talk about what the defense will be. The Bengals have some really talented players on the defensive side of the ball. For starters they will get back cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. Last season Kirkpatrick battled injuries and only played in a few games. He should be healthy to start the season and he and Leon Hall should be their two starting outside corners. That would then put Adam Jones and Terrance Newman in the slots and nickel back positions. How many teams can say that they have two former pro bowlers as their nickel and slot corners? The Bengals do, and it should really help this defense shut teams down.
To go along with their really good secondary they Bengals have some good pass rushers in their front 7. The Bengals run a Hybrid defense but the base is 4-3 scheme. They have a lot of long athletic defensive ends in Michael Johnson, Robert Geathers, Carlos Dunlap, and Donta Moch. They added James Harrison to this front 7. In the 4-3 scheme he can play either defensive end of strong side outside linebacker. They also have Domata Peko and Geno Atkins in the middle, both of whom can really get after the passer. I expect a big year from the defense of the Bengals. I think the few additions that they have made and this very good defense will make the Bengals a legit contender this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
I think it’s time to realize that the Steelers are in a rebuilding phase. This team is only getting older and I think this offseason let us know that they are looking in a younger direction.
They Steelers let pass rusher James Harrison and nose tackle Casey Hampton go this offseason. While both of these guys still have a little left in the tank, it was best that the Steelers part ways and start building for the future. The Steelers also lost wide receiver Mike Wallace in free agency, but that didn’t have anything to do with age, they just couldn’t afford him. I trust that the Steelers have a plan and their rebuilding is different than other teams rebuilding. When the Steelers rebuild they still compete every game and they may even make a playoff push. I don’t think in anyway this team is ready for a super bowl run.
On offense the Steelers are led by Ben Rothlinsberger. Big Ben is still a very good quarterback in this league but all the injuries are starting to take a toll on him physically. He uses his big body to shake off defenders but he also takes a lot of hits in the process. Big Ben will really have to trust his young offensive line more and stay in the pocket to extend his career a few more years.
The Steelers added linebacker Jarvis Jones though the draft. Jones is expected to start in place of the departed James Harrison. Jones is a really good pass rusher that has great speed of the edge. He doesn’t have the same power that Harrison has but he does play with good leverage and has the ability to break off blocks to make plays in the run game. Jones should help this defense get over Harrison.
The Steelers also added running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell fits the build of the running backs that the Steelers have always liked. He is big, durable, shifty, and quick in the holes. Bell is more of a north and south runner than Dywer and Redmon. He also brings a little more explosion than the other two. I think the Steelers will be running the ball a lot more as they continue to sure up that young offensive line.
Even though the Steelers lose Mike Wallace they still have two really good wide outs in Emmaunel Sanders and Antonio Brown. Both of these wide receivers are quick and fast. They are also good route runners. They will make big plays in the passing game and give Big Ben two reliable options. The Steelers also added wide receivers Markus Wheaton and Justin Brown through the draft. Wheaton is a small play maker much like Brown and Sanders. Justin Brown is a bigger guy that runs good routes and uses his big body to shield off defenders. I think the Steelers have a decent group of receivers and they will be able to help big ben in the passing game. I think the passing game will depend on the set up of the running game.
The Steelers defense is getting old. Troy Polamalu is slowing down, he isn’t’ having the same impact on the games that he used to. Ryan Clark has also lost a few steps and isn’t making the same plays he once did. Ike Taylor is still a starting corner in this league be he isn’t their shut down corner he once was. This entire defense together along with Dick Lebaue’s scheme will still be productive but I think we will see a different Steelers defense this season. They won’t be able to rely on individual effort like they did in the past. I trust in Lebaue and he will put these players in the right spots to be effective.
Cleveland Browns 6-10
The Cleveland Browns will pull the rear in this division. I really liked what the Browns did last year in the draft getting Brandon Weedon and Trent Richardson in the first round. I also liked what they did in the supplemental draft picking up Josh Gordon. They were all rookies and this is a young team so it didn’t come together last season. I expect all of them to have a good year this season.
So let’s start with the good. Brandon Weedon will be in his second season as the Browns starting quarterback. He can’t possibly play any worse than he did last season. At times it looked like Weedon didn’t know up from down. He did have a few flashes when he hung strong in the pocket and delivered lasers to Josh Gordon. Weedon has a strong arm and good accuracy. If the browns can construct and offensive line then that will only aid in Weedon’s development.
The biggest bright spot for the Browns is running back Trent Richardson. In college Richardson was a tough bruising runner. He did most of that last season when he was healthy. They only thing that stopped Richardson was injuries. I look for him to have a very good year, seeing as though he is this team biggest playmaker. He reminds me a lot of Maurice Jones Drew. I just hope that Norv Turner will be able to get him the ball in some good situations.
Another bright sport for this team is Josh Gordon and Devon Bess. Gordon really came on late last season. Gordon is a big body with explosive speed. He is also a very good route runner. He will be entering his second season and I think he will do really well in Tuner’s offense. Bess came in via trade from the Dolphins. For a few years Bess was the Dolphins best wide out. They brought in Mike Wallace and that made Bess expendable. He is still a really good receiver. He runs good crisp routes and knows how to get open in the zone coverages. Bess will really help Weedon on those underneath and check down routes.
In the draft the Browns drafted Barkevious Mingo to add a pass rusher to this defense. Mingo is long and quick; he plays with good leverage and should add another dimension to this defense. The Browns also added pass rusher Paul Kruger in the offseason. Kruger was a pass rush specialist for the Ravens last year and really had some great games. He was the reason that the Ravens didn’t miss Suggs too much. Together Mingo and Kruger should give the Brown’s a good pass rush combination. The Browns also have pro bowl linebacker Deqwell Jackson and pro bowl corner Joe Haden. This defense has some really nice pieces and they should be able to give the offense a chance to win games.
The Browns just don’t have the same talent that the other three teams in the division have. They just don’t measure up to the Raven, Bengals, or Steelers. I like that they are trying to stock pile young talent but they really just can’t compete this season.
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